2015 Model Portfolio Is Up – Oil / CyberSec / China e-Commerce Themes

I’ve created a model portfolio with the 9-10 stocks that I think will perform well this year. I own and will be trading a subset of these stocks in real time around a core position. I will post the updated portfolio results at the end of each month.

Any one who talks to me knows that I am bullish on Oil, Cybersecurity and China e-Commerce. The stock picks reflect these three themes. Here they are in no particular order:

2-17-2015 11-07-06 PM

ChartStudy: Using On Balance Volume to find breakouts before they happen

A couple years ago, one of my charting mentors explained the value of using On Balance Volume (OBV) as a tool to search for potential stock breakouts before they happen. The specific idea here is to look for divergences between buying pressure (volume) and price movement (i.e. positive accumulation while the price action remains flat or moves lower). I call this “X-Ray vision” and it has now become a core part of my technical analysis. Its also kept me from panicking when/if the stock I buy dips lower.

A great primer on On balance volume can be found on Stockcharts.com.

Now let’s look at an example of On Balance Volume at work:


Everyone has been hating on FireEye for a while. That precipitous drop from the 90’s to the 20’s sure was fugly. While price was making lower highs and basing, between May – Dec 2014, OBV started spiking upward. That was the first clue that there was major accumulation occurring while keeping the price low.

Here is my Stocktwits post in Dec citing this observation. As soon as I saw this, I started accumulating in the low 30s. Sure enough, FireEye spiked to 42 on earnings release beat.

2-14-2015 9-19-01 AM

Oil hits major trendline

Anyone thinking about trading oil this year, should consider where we are at for Spot Crude prices. I believe we are at a historical support level that has held for the last 15 years. Anyone telling me that oil is going to 30 (Including Citi) is going to have to go past this 15 year TL.

I’m getting my shopping lists ready for the Oil comeback. I think this will be a key play for 2015.

2-13-2015 11-45-40 PM

Cybersec continues to blow up in 2015

Cybersecurity plays this are smokin hot, starting the year off with a bang, as evidenced by the plays below.

All the key Cyber stocks – FEYE, CYBR, QLYS and VDSI had significant price movements due to very strong ERs.

The HACK ETF continues to do well.

I’ve created a Cyber pFolio for 2015 and will be tracking its performance for this year.

2-5-2015 9-18-00 PM 2-10-2015 8-27-25 AM 2-3-2015 8-08-03 AM 2-13-2015 11-32-11 PM